Market Update for the Month Ending May 31, 2013

Presented by Sean Gross, CFP®, AIF®

Strong May marred by volatility at the end

May was another strong month for equity markets, with a total gain of 2.34 percent for the S&P 500 Index, 2.24 percent for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and 3.82 percent for the NASDAQ. The S&P 500 and the Dow notched all-time highs, though the positive ultimate results masked a great deal of intra-month volatility. The first weeks of the month showed almost uninterrupted increases, while the last week was volatile, with multiple daily gains and losses of more than 1 percent and a noteworthy sell-off on May 31. Fundamentals were unchanged for the month, valuations crept higher with the market itself, and technicals remained relatively strong.

Volatility was driven largely by comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke, who seemed to suggest in a May 22 appearance before Congress that the Fed might reduce its bond purchases much sooner than had been anticipated.

Chairman Bernanke’s comments also caused volatility in the fixed income markets. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index lost 1.78 percent for the month, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose from 1.66 percent to 2.16 percent. The floating-rate bank loan sector was the only fixed income sector to post a positive return, and long-duration Treasuries and TIPS were hardest hit.

Figure 1: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields, January 2013–May 2013

Source: Bloomberg

International stocks significantly underperformed U.S. equities in May. The MSCI EAFE Index was down 2.41 percent, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined 2.94 percent. Japan experienced very wide swings, with large gains in the first half of the month erased and turned into losses in the second half. Brazilian equities struggled greatly, losing 7.11 percent.

The real economy continued to grow

Early in May, employment gains for April came in above expectations. Housing showed strength as well, with both new and existing home sales increasing. In addition, house prices climbed more than 10 percent year-over-year, per the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, and the supply of houses for sale remained well below normal. Tight supply and strong demand suggest that the home price trend may continue.

Rising home values and stock prices brought overall household wealth levels close to pre-crisis peaks. These factors, together with declining gasoline prices, pushed consumer confidence up.

Economic growth for the first quarter was revised slightly lower, from 2.5 percent to 2.4 percent. But this downward revision was mostly due to a larger-than-estimated decline in government spending.

Growing economy puts Fed on the spot

With the real economy growing and stock markets performing relatively well, the Fed is in a quandary. At some point, it will have to wind down its stimulus program. The question is: When? Chairman Bernanke’s comments on May 22 surprised financial markets, leading to market turmoil and a drop of more than 2 percent that day and a further decline the next day.

Real economy solid, markets less so

At month-end, the real economy appeared well positioned to continue growth at current levels, but financial markets appeared less stable. Much depends on when and how the Fed reduces its stimulus. Interest rates will be the primary channel. If rates tick up significantly, stock and bond valuations could be at risk.

Rate increases don’t appear likely soon, though they are inevitable at some point. Investors should be aware of this and plan for the volatility that may come when the Fed does move. When that day arrives, the recovery in the real economy should be more firmly in place, which may provide a firm foundation if markets wobble.

For investors, cautious optimism is the appropriate stance. The end-of-month market instability serves as a reminder to be positioned with long-term goals in mind rather than with the objectives of following short-term trends.

Disclosure: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index representing securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar-denominated. It covers the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, with index components for a combination of the Barclays Capital government and corporate securities, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. It excludes closed markets and those shares in otherwise free markets that are not purchasable by foreigners.

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Sean Gross, CFP®, AIF® is a financial advisor located at Telos Wealth Management, LLC, 385 E. Penny Rd., Suite 103, Wenatchee, WA.  He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network^®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Sean can be reached by phone at 509-664-8844 or by email at Info@TelosWealth.com.

Authored by Brad McMillan, vice president, chief investment officer, and Sean Fullerton, investment research associate, at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2013 Commonwealth Financial Network^® 

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Market Update for the Month Ending April 30, 2013

Presented by Sean Gross, CFP®, AIF®

Markets strong as real economy slows

April was another month of strong equity performance. The S&P 500 Index was up 1.93 percent, trailed slightly by the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 1.94 percent and the NASDAQ at 1.88 percent. Technically, markets were robust, with all three indices well above their 50- and 200-day moving averages.

Stronger-than-expected corporate earnings drove markets up as the month closed. With more than half of companies reporting, earnings per share grew 2 percent, and roughly 70 percent of companies beat expectations. Corporate revenues were less encouraging, as more than half missed top-line expectations.

In overseas markets, the MSCI EAFE Index was up 5.19 percent, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 0.66 percent. Developed international markets were higher as good news came from several sources. Italian politicians elected Enrico Letta, a centrist and supporter of the European Union, their prime minister. Letta’s ascent led investors to buy Italian bonds, pushing the Italian 10-year yield to its lowest level in 30 months. Italian yields are lower now than they were in 2007, before the global financial crisis began (see chart).

Yield for Italy’s 10-Year Bond, 2007–2013

  

Source: Bloomberg

Japan’s central bank announced plans to double that nation’s monetary base in two years and end the deflationary spiral that has plagued Japan for more than a decade. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank was poised to cut rates in early May, a move supportive of stocks and risky bonds.

April was positive for fixed income investors. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index returned 1.01 percent, and longer-duration bonds performed quite well, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell, from 1.84 percent to 1.67 percent. Weaker-than-anticipated economic releases, combined with low inflation, reassured investors that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to discontinue its easing program in the near future.

Financial markets diverge from real economy

The real U.S. economy showed signs of a slowdown. Only 88,000 jobs were added in April, well below the 268,000 new jobs reported for the month before. Weak durable goods orders also signaled a slowdown, and the reported gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.5 percent for the first quarter was below expectations.

Nevertheless, total labor demand stayed strong. According to the Ned Davis Research Group, the number of hours worked has increased at a level equivalent with having added 328,000 more jobs to the workforce. This suggests that overall demand is healthy, but that companies are reluctant to hire.

Consumer demand was vigorous early in the first quarter but slowed toward quarter-end, with a decline in retail sales for March. Housing has been positive for consumers. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index recently reported a 9.32-percent gain year-over-year, as prices climbed and demand outstripped supply.

During the first quarter, government spending likely declined 4.2 percent on an annualized basis—or 0.8 percent of GDP—according to Capital Economics. This figure was not inclusive of the sequester cuts, which took full effect in early April.

The economic impact of the sequester cuts is not yet known, but, so far, markets haven’t reacted negatively. In addition, the decrease in government spending is narrowing the deficit, which is projected to come close to stabilizing in 2014.

Risks around the world persist

The European economy stagnated, as several countries struggled to stabilize their banking systems. North Korea kept on rattling its cage, and several countries confirmed Syria’s use of chemical weapons. If chemical weapon use is deemed widespread, this could spur an intervention by the U.S. and its allies. None of these risks appears to pose an imminent threat to markets.

Recovery moves along but at a slower pace

The U.S. economic recovery continues, although the pace looks likely to slow. U.S. corporations also keep posting impressive profits, but future growth may not be as significant. Markets appear to be pricing in an optimistic future, but, if this doesn’t play out, equity market revaluation could lower levels. In short, there are reasons for optimism; however, this late in the cycle, investors should remain mindful of risk management.

Disclosure: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. It excludes closed markets and those shares in otherwise free markets that are not purchasable by foreigners. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index representing securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar-denominated. It covers the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, with index components for a combination of the Barclays Capital government and corporate securities, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities.

                                                                                                                ###

Sean Gross, CFP®, AIF® is a financial advisor located at Telos Wealth Management, LLC, 385 E. Penny Rd., Suite 103, Wenatchee, WA.  He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network^®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Sean can be reached by phone at 509-664-8844 or by email at Info@TelosWealth.com.

Authored by Brad McMillan, vice president, chief investment officer, and Sean Fullerton, investment research associate, at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2013 Commonwealth Financial Network^®

Market Update for the Quarter Ending March 31, 2013

Presented by Sean Gross, CFP®, AIF®  

U.S. stock markets continue a bull run

March was another excellent month for U.S. markets, with the S&P 500 Index up 3.75 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 3.86 percent. The NASDAQ showed slightly lower but still very strong performance, gaining 3.4 percent. For the quarter, the three indices climbed 10.61 percent, 11.93 percent, and 8.21 percent, respectively.

For the second year in a row, the U.S. stock markets started very strongly. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 hit all-time records in the first quarter (see chart). Technical factors remain supportive for all three indices, and the record highs indicate no remaining resistance levels to pierce. Fundamental factors, however, are less supportive of continued increases, with earnings growth estimates declining over the quarter, despite surging prices that left valuations higher at quarter-end.

Figure 1. In March, the S&P 500 Hit an All-Time Closing High

 

Source: Bloomberg

International markets performed less well, reflecting ongoing economic and political challenges outside the U.S. The MSCI EAFE Index rose 0.84 percent in March and was up 5.15 percent for the quarter—a respectable showing, especially given the turmoil in Cyprus at month-end. On a price return basis, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 2.09 percent for the month, pulling it into the red for the quarter and leading to a 2.14-percent decline year-to-date. Technically, both indices are showing weakness, having penetrated their 50-day moving averages. Still, the EAFE remains well above its 200-day moving average, though the emerging markets index is approaching its 200-day moving average. 

Risk outperforms safety in fixed income markets

In the U.S., a positive month for stocks was mirrored by a good month for risky bonds. The Barclays Capital U.S. Corporate High Yield Index returned 1.02 percent in March, making it the best-performing U.S. fixed income sector, while bank loans also performed well. Meanwhile, municipal bonds actually lost a bit of ground, and longer duration bonds underperformed. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.08 percent for the month and declined 0.13 percent for the quarter. March was essentially a continuation of what has occurred during the first quarter as a whole, with investors rotating out of lower risk assets and into yield plays. The one area where risk taking did not pay off was in global and emerging market debt. A stronger dollar was a large contributor to this discrepancy.

Despite increased investor appetite for risk, Treasury and mortgage yields remain at extremely low levels, thanks to monthly Treasury and mortgage purchasing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) of $45 billion and $40 billion, respectively. Fed officials have said that they will not stop the purchases until the unemployment rate declines to 6.5 percent. Given that the rate currently hovers around 7.7 percent, the buying is unlikely to stop anytime soon. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury closed the quarter yielding 1.85 percent.

Washington, DC and the dog that barked, but has not yet bitten…

A positive surprise for the quarter was the lack of damage that the fiscal cliff tax increases did to the economy. Although the increases reduced personal income, consumer spending continued strong, and the economy appeared to remain on track.

Similarly, the sequestration spending cuts that took effect in early March seem to have done little so far to hurt the economy. It is, however, still too early to tell how much growth could be affected by the cuts, as they will be implemented over time. Federal spending comprises from 20 percent to 25 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, and the 2013 cuts amount to roughly 2 percent of government expenditures.

Some progress has even been made by our divided government. Although at the beginning of the year Congress and the White House had appeared set to continue to battle, so far they have agreed to disagree and managed to avoid a government shutdown. The perceived reduction in political risk, combined with continued economic growth, has presented investors with an environment where most major risks seem less serious than a few months ago.

Housing and employment continue to strengthen

Thus far, the reduction in political uncertainty and continued consumer spending appear to be supportive of the real economy. Housing has been another principal driver, as a decline in the supply of homes for sale to historic lows has led to price increases at the national level. The declining supply has also led to higher levels of new home construction, which recently reached a five-year high. In fact, in 2012, for the first time in six years, new home construction added to—rather than subtracted from—economic growth.

The recovery in the housing market has also engendered gains in employment, which has improved significantly. According to Capital Economics, housing construction has accounted for about one-fourth of the new jobs created in the first quarter of 2013. That matters, particularly because many workers hired had been among the long-term unemployed.

Finally, some related effects of new housing construction have included gains in building material production, carpet production, and other sectors which sell into new homes. With housing affordability still at or close to record highs, this should continue to boost the economy going forward.

The rest of the world

The rest of the world still appears subject to significant headwinds. Continued recession in many European economies is depressing expectations, and the uncertainty associated with the rescue of the Cypriot banking system has reinforced the perception that the European crisis is not over. The initial rescue plan, which proposed taxing all existing bank account deposits, including those of small account holders, was rejected by the Cypriot parliament and eventually replaced by one that targeted only large account holders. The possibility that depositors could be subject to such losses rattled financial markets across the Eurozone, particularly in the peripheral nations whose economies are already under stress.

Emerging markets have suffered from the slowdown in Europe and also from country-specific issues. These include wage pressure and weak manufacturing in China, inflation in Brazil, and worries about natural gas prices in Russia. While threats from North Korea to attack South Korea and other nations, including the U.S., have been widely publicized, markets seem to believe that this is mere saber-rattling. Nevertheless, we believe the situation on the Korean peninsula must continue to be carefully monitored.

U.S. recovery continues but risks remain

The U.S. recovery is broad based, with rising employment, strengthening consumer spending, and a housing recovery that appears driven by fundamentals. At the same time, risks remain—domestically, in the form of a potential breakdown in the current bipartisan cooperation, and globally, as other major world economies struggle to resume growth. In previous years, we have had strong first quarters followed by weak second quarters, and that remains a risk this year.

Although the foundation of the real economy appears to be firming, financial markets are becoming less attractively valued. Tailwinds in the form of lower interest rates and company share buybacks have driven markets to new highs but may be less supportive going forward. In addition, technical factors remain solid, but the higher the markets go, the more potential there is for a setback.

Overall, we appear to be in a relatively good place, certainly better than other areas of the world. As such, investors seem to have reason for cautious optimism, but should remain mindful that the global economy is still very weak.

Disclosure: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. It excludes closed markets and those shares in otherwise free markets that are not purchasable by foreigners. The Barclays Capital U.S. Corporate High Yield Index covers the USD-denominated, non-investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index representing securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar-denominated. It covers the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, with index components for a combination of the Barclays Capital government and corporate securities, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities.                

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Sean Gross, CFP®, AIF® is a financial advisor located at Telos Wealth Management, LLC, 385 E. Penny Rd., Suite 103, Wenatchee, WA. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network^®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Sean can be reached at 509-664-884 or at Info@TelosWealth.com.

Authored by Brad McMillan, vice president, chief investment officer, and Sean Fullerton, investment research associate, at Commonwealth Financial Network. 

© 2013 Commonwealth Financial Network^®

Market Update for the Month Ending February 28, 2013

Presented by Sean Gross, CFP®, AIF®

Markets take a roller-coaster ride

After a strong January, the markets started February in much the same way but ran into trouble in the middle of the month. In the end, U.S. markets finished in the black, although international markets weren’t as lucky. The S&P 500 Index rose 1.36 percent, closing at 1,514, somewhat below its mid-month high of 1,530 but well above its low of 1,487. The wide swings reflected investor recognition of continuing risks in Europe and in Washington, DC.

U.S. corporate earnings remained strong, with two-thirds of S&P 500 companies beating expectations and about one-fourth of them missing the mark—in line with previous quarters. Technically, the S&P 500 remained above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, and there doesn’t seem to be any technical reason to anticipate a decline. But there does appear to be a resistance level at 1,565, the index’s 2007 high-water mark, suggesting that future gains might be challenging.

International markets were hit harder, reflecting greater exposure to European political and economic problems. The MSCI EAFE Index lost 0.95 percent, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined 1.35 percent. Among the factors affecting foreign markets were the results of the Italian elections, interpreted as a vote against the country’s austerity-based economic stabilization plan. This raised the possibility of another Eurozone political crisis.

Events in Asia also contributed to weak performance. The Japanese plan to boost inflation and weaken its currency pushed the Nikkei average higher. In China, however, manufacturing slowed, leading emerging markets downward.

Long-duration bonds performed very well, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield contracted from 2.01 percent early in the month to about 1.9 percent at its end. The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.5 percent. On a sector basis, investment-grade bonds performed best, while Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and mortgages lagged.

U.S. economy continues to strengthen

The U.S. economy added 157,000 new jobs in January. Additionally, there were upward revisions to previously released data, which showed that payrolls had increased at an average of 201,000 jobs per month in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Housing continued its recovery, with price increases accelerating, available supply declining, and new home sales speeding up. Improvements in home prices, stock prices, and employment opportunities caused consumer confidence to rise for the first time in four months.

U.S. Consumer Confidence, 2008–February 2013

 

Source: Haver Analytics

But the news was not all good. Negative factors included tax increases and the steady rise in gasoline prices, which reduced consumer incomes. In light of these, the tiny 0.1-percent increase in January retail sales was a fairly positive development.

Watch out for Washington, D.C.

Washington continued to grab the headlines, as sequestration spending cuts were scheduled to hit the economy in March. Despite ratcheting up the rhetoric, politicians on both sides seemed resigned to allowing the cuts to proceed.

The most recent release of Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes spooked investors, who learned that some committee members had concerns regarding the effectiveness and long-term effects of continued debt purchases. Nevertheless, most members still appear to believe that the economy is better off with monetary easing than it would be without it.

International risks resurface

As previously noted, risks that plagued Europe last year recently resurfaced. A Spanish government mired in scandal, a newly split Italian parliament, and a 0.6-percent contraction in Germany’s gross domestic product all added to uncertainty—both political and economic.

Other areas also face headwinds. The China/Japan faceoff over disputed territory, North Korean nuclear testing, and the civil war in Syria are all geopolitical risks which could derail investor  confidence.

Signs remain positive, but caution is still important

In spite of renewed risks, U.S. stock markets closed the month with a gain. Investors can take comfort in continued U.S. economic growth and the persistent health of U.S. companies. Yet volatility is a reminder of the need for caution. Investors should continue to balance their long-term goals against their ability to tolerate the risks that come with investing.

Disclosure: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. It excludes closed markets and those shares in otherwise free markets that are not purchasable by foreigners. The Nikkei Index is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It has been calculated daily by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper since 1950. It is price-weighted (the unit is yen), and the components are reviewed once a year. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index representing securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar-denominated. It covers the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, with index components for a combination of the Barclays Capital government and corporate securities, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities.

                                                                                ###

Sean Gross, CFP®, AIF® is a financial advisor located at Telos Wealth Management, LLC, 385 E. Penny Rd., Suite 103, Wenatchee, WA. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network^®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Sean can be reached at 509-664-884 or at Info@TelosWealth.com.

Authored by Brad McMillan, vice president, chief investment officer, and Sean Fullerton, investment research associate, at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2013 Commonwealth Financial Network^®