April 2026 Market Chartbook

Sean Gross, CFP®, AIF® | Co-Founder & CEO

Click here to view our April 2026 Market Chartbook.

April Market Update: Record Highs Amid Ongoing Uncertainty

May 13, 2026

Sean Gross, CFP®, AIF® | Co-Founder & CEO

April is a compelling reminder that markets can stage powerful recoveries even when investor concerns remain elevated. Despite ongoing conflict in the Middle East, major indices reached new all-time highs during the month. The S&P 500 gained 10.4% in April alone — one of its strongest monthly performances on record — echoing last year's tariff-driven volatility and subsequent recovery.

This doesn't mean markets will continue higher without interruption. Geopolitical tensions, an upcoming leadership transition at the Federal Reserve, and elevated energy prices will likely remain in focus in the months ahead. What April reinforces, however, is that maintaining a well-constructed portfolio aligned with long-term financial goals remains the most prudent approach, regardless of how challenging the environment may appear. 

Key Market and Economic Drivers in April

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 10.4% and 15.3% for the month, both ending at new all-time highs; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 7.1%.
• Volatility declined sharply, with the CBOE VIX falling from 25.3 to 16.9. International developed markets returned 7.0% (MSCI EAFE, USD terms); emerging markets returned 14.5% (MSCI EM).
• U.S. small-cap stocks jumped 12.2% (Russell 2000); mid-cap stocks gained 7.8% (S&P MidCap 400). 
• The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month nearly unchanged at 4.37%. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned just 0.1%. 
• Brent crude ended April at $114/barrel, ranging from $92 to $121 intra-month; WTI closed at $105, as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed to shipping. 
• Gold slipped to $4,610/oz., a modest decline for the month. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 98.1 from 99.96 the prior month. 

The Stock Market's Strong Recovery

April's advance may appear surprising given the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty. History has consistently shown, however, that some of the market's strongest months come during periods of peak investor caution — a pattern seen across the pandemic shock of 2020, the inflation-driven bear market of 2022, and the tariff-driven pullback of early 2025. While recoveries are never guaranteed, they tend to arrive when least expected.

After a negative first quarter, the S&P 500 is now up 5.3% year-to-date. The accompanying chart shows the historical distribution of annual S&P 500 returns. Since 1928, markets have delivered positive annual returns in roughly two-thirds of years. Since 1980, that share rises to approximately three-quarters.

This is not to say markets always recover quickly — it's a reminder of just how difficult it is to time the market effectively. Recent years offer valuable lessons for navigating future periods of volatility.

Jerome Powell's Final Meeting as Federal Reserve Chair

At its April meeting, the Fed held its key policy rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Though broadly anticipated, the decision drew notable dissent: four of twelve voting members disagreed — the most since 1992. Three officials supported the hold but objected to language signaling potential future cuts; one governor pushed for an immediate cut, consistent with their position at every prior meeting.

The divide reflects both an impending leadership change and two competing economic challenges. The labor market is softening — job openings have fallen below the number of unemployed workers for the first time in years. At the same time, the conflict involving Iran and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions have pushed oil prices higher, weighing on inflation. 

Ordinarily, a soft labor market favors rate cuts while rising inflation calls for hikes — leaving market expectations roughly split between the two outcomes later this year.

April marked Powell's final press conference as Fed Chair. He has held the role since succeeding Janet Yellen in 2018 and has served on the Board of Governors since 2012. Kevin Warsh, whose nomination has been approved by the Senate Banking Committee, is expected to be his successor. Powell noted he will remain on the Board until ongoing Justice Department legal matters are resolved and that he intends to act respectfully toward the incoming Chair.

While a leadership change introduces some uncertainty, markets and the broader economy have performed well across many different Fed Chairs and policy environments. A well-diversified portfolio is built to navigate exactly this kind of uncertainty.

Energy Prices and Disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices are one of the most direct ways the Iran conflict is affecting investors and consumers. Brent crude and WTI climbed back toward recent highs in April as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed to shipping, with ceasefire false starts driving significant price swings throughout the month.

Despite elevated oil prices, equities performed well. The key concern for investors is whether higher energy costs will begin filtering through to the broader economy. This "second-order effect" occurs when elevated oil and gasoline prices persist long enough to raise transportation and input costs for businesses — expenses that can ultimately be passed on to consumers through higher prices for goods and services.

Some historical perspective is useful here. Oil price shocks have often proven temporary once underlying conditions stabilize. The spike above $5/gallon for U.S. gasoline in 2022, for example, eased as supply improved — despite near-term pressure on household budgets. The U.S. is also now the world's largest oil and natural gas producer, providing considerably more insulation from global supply disruptions than in prior decades.

For investors, this environment underscores the value of broad diversification. Technology-driven sectors led last month, while energy has been a positive contributor year-to-date. Exposure across all parts of the market remains as important as ever.

The Bottom Line

April's rebound illustrates that meaningful gains can materialize even amid significant uncertainty. A flexible, well-constructed portfolio, aligned with your long-term financial goals, is designed to navigate exactly these kinds of environments.

Our New Private Client Portal is Almost Here!

The launch of our new private client portal is just around the corner! Here's what to expect:

• Altruist and Charles Schwab client portals are NOT affected: The changes described below apply only to Telos Wealth's private client portal - there will be no changes/restriction in access to your Altruist/Schwab custodian portals.

• Current Telos Wealth private portal data: Once the conversion is complete, all your existing data will transfer automatically into our new private portal and will be accessible here. The link to our new private portal is also available on our website under "Client Login".

• Current private portal retirement date: May 23, 2026. After this date, our current private portal system will no longer be accessible.

• New private portal login instructions: In the coming weeks, you will receive a text from us at 509-664-8844 notifying you that your new private portal login email has been sent. This will be your notification to look for an email from service@teloswealth.com via nstarfinancial.onmicrosoft.com with login instructions. If you use Gmail, this email will likely be routed to your Spam or Junk folder — please check there if you don't see it in your inbox. It's imperative that you follow the instructions within 24 hours of receipt, or the login link will expire.

• How to prepare: Please take a moment to review this overview, which includes login instructions and a preview of our new private portal's features and layout.

• There’s an app for that! We'll also be introducing a custom mobile app for our private portal, available in both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store, giving you a convenient way to access your financial information on the go. More details will follow in a separate communication.

• Enhanced experience: Our new private portal leverages the latest technology to deliver a sleek, intuitive interface with expanded features, easier navigation, and enhanced security.

• Need help? Don't hesitate to reach out — call or text us at 509-664-8844 or email us at Service@TelosWealth.com.

March 2026 Market Chartbook

Sean Gross, CFP®, AIF® | Co-Founder & CEO

Click here to view our March 2026 Market Chartbook.

Q1 2026 Market Review: Navigating Geopolitical Tensions, Rising Oil, and Market Volatility

Sean Gross, CFP®, AIF® | Co-Founder & CEO

The first quarter of 2026 serves as a compelling reminder of why preparation is essential in financial planning and investing. Following strong performance in 2025, markets faced a confluence of geopolitical shocks, surging oil prices, and renewed economic uncertainty. The conflict in Iran, which broke out at the end of February, emerged as the dominant market narrative, driving oil prices sharply higher and triggering the year’s first market pullback. By late March, however, headlines surrounding a potential ceasefire began to surface, and developments continue to unfold.

Stepping back to view the broader picture, markets have still delivered exceptional performance over the trailing twelve months. Beneath the headline numbers, several areas of the market—including energy and defensive sectors—have provided meaningful portfolio support. In the months ahead, new market questions will inevitably arise, among them a leadership transition at the Federal Reserve and the midterm election later this year.

For long-term investors, the first quarter reinforces that markets rarely move in a straight line, and that disciplined investing principles matter most precisely when uncertainty is at its highest.

Key Market and Economic Drivers

• The S&P 500 experienced a total return of -4.3% in Q1, the Nasdaq -7.0%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average -3.2%.
• The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index was flat for the first quarter of 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the quarter at 4.3% after falling as low as 3.9% at the end of February.
• Developed market international stocks (MSCI EAFE) were down -1.1% and emerging market stocks (MSCI EM) declined -0.1% over the quarter, both on a total return basis in U.S. dollar terms.
• Oil prices spiked with Brent crude reaching $118 per barrel at the end of March after beginning the year under $61. WTI ended the quarter at $101 per barrel.
• Gold ended the quarter at $4,668 per ounce after climbing as high as $5,417 in January. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened slightly to 99.96 over the same period.
• February inflation showed headline CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year and core CPI climbing 2.5%. The core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred measure, rose 3.1% year-over-year in January.
• The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged within a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at both meetings during the first quarter.

Markets experienced the first pullback of the year

It is natural to draw comparisons between the early months of this year and the start of 2025, as both were shaped by global concerns. Notably, both first-quarter periods saw the S&P 500 decline by 4.3%. While last year’s volatility was driven by tariffs and this year’s stems from the conflict in the Middle East, the effect on investor sentiment has been broadly similar. When uncertainty intensifies, it is entirely normal for markets to experience short-term swings in reaction to headlines.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but taking a longer view can offer useful historical context. Despite the turbulence in the first quarter of 2025, stocks delivered strong gains for the remainder of the year, with major indices recording dozens of new all-time highs. The point is not that markets always rebound swiftly, but rather that market commentary tends to emphasize the negative. As a result, recoveries often occur when investors least anticipate them.

Perhaps the most grounding perspective is to recognize that pullbacks are a normal and unavoidable feature of investing. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has posted an average intra-year drawdown of roughly 15%, even as markets have delivered positive returns in more than two-thirds of calendar years. A typical year tends to see four or five pullbacks of five percent or more. Last year saw six such declines, yet the S&P 500 still finished with an 18% total return.

For investors, the central takeaway is that short-term market fluctuations—particularly those triggered by headline-driven uncertainty—are simply part of the market cycle. Portfolios built around long-term financial goals are designed precisely to navigate these kinds of periods. This perspective may be especially relevant as the midterm election approaches and fiscal concerns resurface later in the year.

Geopolitics and oil prices are the primary source of uncertainty

The most consequential market development of the first quarter was the escalating Middle East conflict, which sent oil prices surging. Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz—a critical passage that carries roughly 20% of global oil from the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world—led to production cuts among major oil-producing nations in the region. Brent crude ended the quarter at $118 per barrel, up over 94% year-to-date, while WTI crude surpassed $100 per barrel, the highest levels since the war in Ukraine began in 2022. Oil prices will continue to respond to geopolitical developments, including any progress toward a potential ceasefire.

Higher fuel costs affect consumers directly through gasoline prices at the pump and indirectly through elevated costs for goods and services across the broader economy. The national average price of gasoline reached $4 at the end of March, and diesel prices have also risen considerably.

While these developments do weigh on household budgets, economists tend to view such “supply-side shocks” as temporary when assessing overall economic health. This is because oil prices typically stabilize once the underlying geopolitical event has been resolved. A similar pattern emerged in 2022, when gas prices peaked near $5 before declining within months. While not a comfortable environment, significant financial hardship is not anticipated for the average American household at current gasoline price levels.

History also demonstrates that geopolitical events, despite generating short-term instability, have rarely derailed markets over the long run. This was evident following the U.S. operation in Venezuela in January, which surprised markets but had little enduring impact on investments. While the current situation continues to evolve and the humanitarian consequences are significant, investors who made dramatic portfolio adjustments in response to past geopolitical events often did so at an inopportune moment.

Economic growth is slowing but remains positive

Volatile energy prices are only one dimension of a broader economic picture. Other indicators point to an economy that has moderated over the past year but remains fundamentally sound—this after several years in which economists and investors alike forecast recessions that never arrived.

Among the most closely monitored indicators is the labor market. The latest payrolls data show that February job gains fell by 92,000, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%. Notably, job seekers now outnumber job openings for the first time in years. As recently as 2022, there were two job openings for every unemployed individual, reflecting an exceptionally tight labor market—a relationship that has since reversed.

Context is important here. Fewer individuals are entering the workforce due to lower immigration levels and an aging population. In other words, both the supply and demand sides of the labor market are softening simultaneously, which has helped keep the unemployment rate near historically strong levels. Jobs data receive close attention from investors because employment directly influences household income, consumer confidence, and spending. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP and has been more resilient than many anticipated over the past several quarters.

Sector performance has diverged

While the broader S&P 500 has pulled back, performance at the sector level has varied considerably. In fact, six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors posted positive returns for the year, and the gap between the best- and worst-performing sectors widened to nearly 50 percentage points during the first quarter.

The Energy sector has been the standout leader, gaining nearly 40% through the end of March, as higher oil prices are expected to boost revenues and stimulate further investment. Other sectors showing relative strength include Consumer Staples, Utilities, Materials, and Industrials, all of which have benefited from a more risk-averse market environment. Many of these are commonly regarded as “defensive” sectors, as they represent more stable businesses with steadier cash flows that are less sensitive to economic cycles.

By contrast, the Information Technology sector declined approximately 9%, and many large-cap stocks within the Magnificent 7 have underperformed. This represents a notable shift from recent years, when a concentrated group of large technology companies drove the majority of market gains. 

As always, it is important to keep these moves in perspective. As illustrated in the chart above, sector leadership can rotate based on prevailing market and economic conditions. Energy was the top-performing sector in both 2021 and 2022, while technology-related stocks struggled during those years—only to reverse course over the following three years. As with asset classes more broadly, it is extremely difficult to predict which sector will lead or lag in any given year, which is why a well-diversified portfolio is better positioned to navigate a range of market environments.

The tariff story is evolving

Trade policy also shifted at the end of January after the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the broad tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful. The administration responded by implementing a temporary global import duty under a separate legal authority, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Additionally, the administration launched new Section 301 trade investigations in March, while approximately a dozen Section 232 investigations remain ongoing.

For investors, the key takeaway is that while the legal framework for tariffs has shifted, the broader direction of trade policy is likely to continue. Tariffs will probably continue to influence the economy through consumer prices, business costs, and investor confidence. That said, last year demonstrated that markets are capable of adapting to these kinds of policy changes over time. Regardless of how the tariff landscape develops later in the year, staying invested and avoiding overreaction to policy shifts remains the prudent approach.

The bottom line? The first quarter of 2026 challenges investors with geopolitical shocks, higher oil prices, and economic uncertainty. Yet markets have been resilient, with well-balanced portfolios and financial plans doing what they were designed to do. Investors should continue to focus on long run goals in the coming months.