Special Report: Iran, Oil, and Your Portfolio

Sean Gross, CFP®, AIF® | Co-Founder & CEO

War is, first, a human tragedy—the comments below focus strictly on market observations so you can stay disciplined amid all of the noise.

The situation in the Middle East continues to evolve, and the safety of civilians in the region and our troops remains the most important consideration. That said, we also believe it’s important to look at the financial market implications to provide perspective on what this means for markets, oil prices, and your portfolio. 

Following the U.S. and Israel’s strikes on Iran, oil prices increased, pushing stocks and bonds slightly lower. This is consistent with other Middle East conflicts, where oil price spikes are often a primary driver of market moves. 

The scope of the latest strikes is broader than previous engagements. However, history also makes it clear that these conflicts are not always a catalyst for lasting market movements. While there have been many global crises and conflicts over the past several years, oil prices are still well below their 2008 and 2022 peaks. This demonstrates why making dramatic portfolio changes in response to geopolitical events can be counterproductive.

While the scale of the current strikes is significant, tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have been escalating for some time. This latest development follows a month-long U.S. military buildup in the region and failed negotiations over Iran's nuclear program.

Looking from a broader perspective, from World War II to the Gulf War, markets often experienced short-term volatility but were driven by economic fundamentals over the long run. More recently, conflicts in the Middle East but did not derail the long-term market trajectory.

The process of building a portfolio and creating financial plans is designed precisely to manage this uncertainty. While each event is unique, financial markets have navigated countless wars, crises, and regional conflicts. The key for long-term investors is to separate headline noise from investment decisions. 

Oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz

For investors, the most direct way that Middle East conflicts affect financial markets is through oil prices and global trade. Iran sits along the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical energy waterway. 

A key question is whether Iran has the means or willingness to cause long-lasting disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, as this could have implications for global energy markets. Oil prices had already been rising in anticipation of the strikes.

However, perspective is needed. Current oil prices remain far below the 2022 peak of nearly $128 per barrel when Russia invaded Ukraine. The U.S. is also now the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas. While the U.S. still relies on global energy markets, this level of production helps insulate the domestic economy from supply disruptions.

Staying invested through uncertainty

For long-term investors, the most important lesson from past geopolitical conflicts is the value of staying invested. It's natural to feel uneasy when headlines describe military strikes and the possibility of a wider regional war. These events involve real human consequences and are unlike typical market news about earnings and economic data.

It's also important to note that Iran plays a minimal direct role in most investment portfolios. The country has been under heavy sanctions for years, limiting its participation in global financial markets. The indirect effects through oil prices and broader uncertainty are more relevant than any direct exposure.

This doesn't mean markets won't experience volatility in the coming days and weeks. Uncertainty around the duration and scope of the conflict could weigh on investor sentiment, but markets can rebound quickly and unexpectedly.

We are watching the situation carefully and will keep you informed if anything material changes regarding your portfolio. We are here for you, especially during times like these, so please don’t hesitate to reach out if you have any questions.

May God bless America, protect our troops, and bring lasting freedom to the Iranian people.